Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of a drying Himalayan river

Abstract. Streamflow regimes are rapidly changing in many regions of the world. Attribution these changes to specific hydrological processes and their underlying climatic anthropogenic drivers is essential formulate an effective water policy. Traditional approaches hydrologic attribution rely on ability infer through development catchment-scale models. However, such challenging implement practice due limitations using models accurately associate observed outcomes with corresponding drivers. Here we present alternative approach that leverages method multiple hypotheses attribute streamflow Upper Jhelum watershed, important tributary headwater region Indus basin, where a dramatic decline since 2000 has yet be adequately attributed its We generate empirically evaluate series complementary concerning distinct components balance. This process allows holistic understanding watershed-scale developed, even though balance remains open. Using remote sensing secondary data, explore climate, surface water, groundwater. The evidence reveals rather than land use, had considerably stronger influence reductions streamflow, both reduced precipitation increased evapotranspiration. Baseflow analyses suggest different mechanisms affecting upstream downstream regions, respectively. These findings offer promising avenues for future research data-scarce regions.